Abstract:

Objective

To discuss the main risk factors of nonsyndromic cleft lip and palate （NSCL/P）， to propose the reasonable predictive model for aristogenesis net.

Methods

A hospital-based 1 ∶1 matched case-control study design was applied to our epidemiological study.126 nonsyndromic cleft lip and palate children， the age in the 0 ～12 year-old were selected from some hospitals in Shandong province from Sep，2006 to Sep，2007 as collecting cases， and control cases were chosen from the same section or same living area with the matched patients. A selfadministered questionnaire prepared according to risk factors o f NSCL/P was used to collect information， that is， the parents of patients and controls of NSCL/P were asked some questions about these risk factors and the answers were filled in the questionnaire by investigators. After the investigation， these data were cleaned up by pair and input into computer to establish data base in Excel 2003. Carried on the multivariate stepwise regression analysis in univariate condition Logistic regression analysis foundation， discovered the risk factors from multitudinous possible influencing factors and establish the regression model. Established the classification tree and the LogitBoost predictive models separately according to the risk factors， to appraise the two models using the ROC curve， established the reasonable predictive model of NSCL/P.

Results

There were 6 risk factors in the model which were related to NSCL/P， maternal infectious history （P=0.011）， genetic family history （P=0.008）， maternal disorder diet （P=0.005）， birth order （P=0.004），maternal stress during the first trimester of pregnancy （P=0.001）， fathers' education level（P=0.000）. After the evaluation with ROC curve， established the classification tree model which was used to predict the morbidity of NSCL/P.

Conclusions

Maternal infectious history， genetic family history， maternal disorder diet， birth order and maternal stress during the first trimester of pregnancy， were promoting factors of NSCL/P， Fathers' education level was a protecting factor.According to the investigation， we established the classification tree model as the predictive model of the morbidity of NSCL/P.

Key words: Nonsyndromic cleft lip and palate, Risk factors, Conditional Logistic regression, Classification tree, Logitboost, ROC curve